The September effect

25 Answer


Ops you tend to get things wrong this way if you analyze the market with this kind of mentality and data, in the next coming weeks we are going to see a lot of recovery for Bitcoin even if US stock continues to fall Bitcoin is at a rebounding stage and with that a lot of uptrends is expected.If you study the data of previous years correctly you will see that your pattern for analysis and the data you used may mislead you into more confusion about which direction to go either to buy or sell but I will advise we all hold and but more Bitcoin because the 200 weeks of winter are gone.


I am trying to see reason for the OP prediction. From the Op image I see that all the years of bitcoin market prices, September has recorded decrease always it is only 2015 and 2016 that it record small increase and seeing this year 2022 happening now. I came to understand and agreed with the OP. Last month to some extent bitcoin was some how stable. But from midweek from last week bitcoin price just drastically coming to again, so me too I am trying to believe that September is an Imber month for bitcoin. That is why history is good because it record what has happened to predict the present and the future. From the historical analysis, we came to see and understand that bitcoin market in September is always in a bad mode. Therefore, this will also be a signal to users of bitcoin to know what to do in every September. So that the users will not have heart attack. But let see if October will be a favourable month for the market


September "could" be a bad month but if you check October has always been amazing right afterwards.We had 30%+ returns multiple times and we had great returns aside from just 2 times. This is why we should realize that there are moments when we get in during September and get out in October and make a great profit. That is something we should be looking at, if the price drops, then we should buy some more, if the price doesn't fall... well still buy some more because nobody gets hurt from buying bitcoin and holding it.If you sell after it drops then you will be hurt, but if you are going to sell after a crash then you shouldn't have bought it to begin with.

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It seems the negative sentiment of the market in September is a spillover or a continuation of the effects of the ghost month which is August. Although I don't really give too much significance to such kind of pattern, there are a number of people who make trade decisions based on it. September for example is not always red. But since many Septembers were red in the past, people would find a pattern where there is actually none and it would become a self-fulfilling prophecy.


Do you reckon prices will go up because of Ethereum merge?

Comment (1)

pooya872022-08-30 04:13

Whenever shitcoins create a hype to pump their prices (like this hard fork), the pump occurs BEFORE the hype ends not after it. In other words the ETH pump should happen before the hard fork and then end either days before the fork itself or right as it is taking place.Looking at the charts it looks like they already pumped this shitcoin in the first 2 weeks of August and the pump seems to be already over since the dumping began already.Such pump and dumps have no effects on anything else, least of which bitcoin price!


One strange thing someone told me about September was that it was seen as the "Birthday" month for many people, because a lot of babies are conceived during the December holidays when people are in a holiday mood...and 9 months later in September, the babies are born. So, people have a lot of Birthday parties to arrange and presents to buy, so they have less money to spend on investments in September... compared to other months of the year. 


I also watched videos on youtube that september have not been good in all crypto history and August is almost over and still market is still crashing even more. This is bad news for some people panicking the market crash but to people who were used to it, it is a golden opportunity to buy good coins and filling those bags is the best decision will be. As saying goes, "be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy". Surely millionaires will be made during bear market.


The stock market is already pulling down right now and also the crypto market . But there are other reasons for that. The US 10 year treasury yield is bouncing up hard above 3% and that also led  the US dollar running up to A 20 year high, now very bullish you can check it out on the DOLLAR INDEX Chart and that have been pulling the market down. So if we want Stocks and Crypto Rebound, then Dollars has to drop down.


One major determining factor here I'm curiously looking at that could affect the price of Bitcoin in the month of September is the Fed ,If the Fed continues its decision in rolling off its balance sheet, Basically the collapse of the supply side. We will likely be getting a repeat of what happened in the month of September during the previous years market and coupled with the fact that we are already in the bear market I do think will definitely make it more possible for the further drop in the price of Bitcoin in the month of September.


Well September hasn't even started yet and we can see bitcoin decline in price. Who knows what's gonna happen next.It's not necessary that it's because of the month but there are certain things happening that act as a catalyst towards the price decline.I guess it would be best to HODL and wait for bitcoin to bottom out completely. I guess we will have to wait until the end of the year to see if things are going in a positive direction or not.


Many analysts argue that September is the worst month in Bitcoin's history and this is clearly visible in the chart below. But also April and May have usually been good months, which this year turned out to be the worst scenario ever. So I think that September could have the opposite effect.

Comment (1)

kamvreto2022-08-28 15:28

There are bad months and of course there are good months. August - September was dominated by a bear market and this situation brought bitcoin to fall. this is also due to the current spread of several Fuds so that the market situation is increasingly unstable. To reach the new ATH it will need to drop enough to take Bitcoin to new peaks. Even though this is the worst case scenario and has the opposite effect from before, we still have to manage our assets and take advantage of this opportunity to buy cheaper.


I will sleep with my bag in a cave for 6 months. That's all i can do now. The current market condition is unpredictable. Best to hold for as long term.

Comment (2)

Sebas.tian2022-08-30 04:43

I think, it will really help you to make a good income from your investment because the green light is not stable yet than to keep holding. If you look around what is happening in the crypto market, you will know that there is a big celebration ahead of those who will be patient with their long term holding in this season. I believe, before the end of September there will be massive move of Bitcoin price to alert investors, there is still hope of achieving a huge amount of money from Bitcoin investment before the end of this year 2022.

cryptoaddictchie2022-08-28 15:13

This is the right thing to do.  Its like we need to calm and wait for the right moment once again.  Its not every year we should experience a bull season effect but thats how we should keep tight and remain intact when it comes to our asset.  Yes its kinda frustrating but we cant do as the whole economy is dragging the crypto market on their bull shit inflation.


Last month end of years usually always unfriendly for bitcoin and altcoin holder, have chance for bitcoin going dump again after drop under $20,000 right now. I think not only with September but also until December of this year will give little bad effect for cryptocurrency price. Bitcoin keep dominance with lower price and have several bad news make investor are panic for selling assets with lower price. Hope have magician actually with bad reputation at the end of year bitcoin price always drop ans we can see another positive impact with bitcoin can reach higher price again.


Certain movements can be predicted by looking at past periods, but this isn't always the case. There are many factors that affect the market and as others have stated it's necessary to look at the big picture.Since I don't trade daily, even if September goes red, it won't affect me much, in fact it will be useful for me because I can buy more coins. After all, although we don't know the exact time, we know that the market will return to the bull market again. I'm not very hopeful for September. I don't expect a rise, but there won't big falls either. Bitcoin is stronger than before. The data of the past ten years will turn into a different data as time goes on.


Think of it this way:September is like Black Friday for bitcoin and some other cryptos. Massive discount on the price. It's too bad people don't see it that way; all the advertising in the world for "30% off Bitcoin price" is still going to leave people unconvinced


Now more than any other time Crypto/Bitcoin market is following US stock market movement, so I'm not sure older records on which month is better or worth for Bitcoin is going to mean that much, particularly records before March 2020 as that was the time Covid started to cause a big dump in US market and Bitcoin started following SPX chart almost candle by candle since then with some small exceptions here and there.I believe until Bitcoin shows some sign of decoupling from stocks we have to follow the US market, the printings, rate hikes and anything that can positively or negatively affect US market and subsequently whole cryptocurency market, I'm hoping for a decoupling at some point personally.


Highlighting the data in this way will give wrong results because the rate of change from one month to another is misleading, as the price increase in one month will affect the next month and so on, perhaps the average of several months will be appropriate, or stripping the price of the effect of the latest results.In general, we can say that the last months of the year are generally better, and there are no more details about the rest of the months.

Comment (1)

darkangel112022-08-28 18:16

I don't see a pattern here at all. To me it's all trying to force a pattern to a set of data where everybody can see their own thing.Just look at it. You  have months that are 50% good and 50% bad like May, you have months that are mostly bad like March and you have months that are mostly good like July. Does it say anything about the future? No it does not because a month can be extremely good and then continuously bad like March. You had +172% and then for the next 5 years in a row it was bad. In September we had 5 bad years in a row, which doesn't say this year will be bad. Also, what's a good month? February 2022 is a green month but really it isn't. The price recovered from an enormous drop from 68k to 32k - more than 50% of losses and then had a mere 12% dead cat bounce. It's green on the charts but it's not a good month because most investors are at a loss at this point anyway.


There is nothing like the September effect and you theory to it isn't factual. Although last year and few years before that there has been drop. But if we are taking history to make a conclusive judgement then in 2017 a very important year for bitcoin we would see at September bitcoin was at a steady rising stage, as at September 2017 Bitcoin was less than $5k but during the month of September it manage to maintain a figure to to far from what it started and carried in on into the next month, and there has been some similarities in subsequent year.I won't say September has been a bullish month for Bitcoin looking down history but it hasn't been a month we saw a drastic fall in The price of bitcoin and probably this year would be same.

Comment (1)

Hamphser2022-08-27 18:24

I dont really believe that much when it  comes to some patterns or histories which comparing up the present or future into it but its not really that bad to take up some consideration on looking to have at least theidea on how the price had been behaving in between years but doesnt mean that it would really be doing just as the same on the next year.For now we are almost ending this month of August which do ends up on being bear and high probability that this would continue on next month but nothing is assured.We arent able to make out some changes in movement if we dont see anysentiment that would affect the market or some catalyst but lets see on how it would really be started up.


People always tend to look for patterns on a market that is not strictly governed with such. The more we try to look for these things and magnify it to make a point, the more we are lead to making bad choices because of the 'patterns' we produce. Maybe try to look for reasons why the upcoming month is already looming with reds? Is it because of other movements on other markets? Governments on different policies that may affect crypto? Because one thing's for sure, those things that I mentioned may be the reason, and not because a pattern has been established and traders automatically agree to it all of a sudden.

Comment (2)

Don Pedro Dinero2022-08-28 09:44

You are right but I was thinking when I heard the news about Powel and the Fed this week, which caused the markets to fall, that going into a traditionally bearish month with the current economic situation it doesn't seem likely to bring us much joy.The pattern can be broken but it doesn't look like it will be this September.

bitzizzix2022-08-28 11:13

Yes, I also read the news recently and it is possible that this was triggered by Fed Governor Jerome Powell's comments about the premature easing of monetary policy too soon. And various factors besides the global crisis, wars also affect the crypto or bitcoin market.looks like September will be a good month to make a purchase, I don't really care about the previous bitcoin data or trail as it all happens due to various factors with different occurrences every month and year.


it's just a record from previous history when you look at last year in september it fell just a few percent as well as now, but look after that in october it experienced an increase that was more than a decrease in september so people will throw it away once again to give the opportunity buyers to buy low now and enjoy short term gains by the end of the year, so it doesn't look like we're going to have such a long decline this month

Comment (1)

Lorence.xD2022-08-30 06:09

It's what I was thinking too, that a nosedive in September can be an opportunity to buy yourself some bitcoin for such a low price, no wonder October has a positive turnout cause there's lots of buys in the previous month. Hopefully you're right that there's no long decline.


 i think there are more economicle things around recent dump. september is a bearish month as we all know. but with the rate hikes and recent decision of  QT is the most effective reason this dump. anyone who dont know about QT i will put a link below for educate about QT.


You can get the Bitcoin Monthly Return from It is historic data from past years. This year, it can be repeated or will be different. If you feel it will be repeated, you can exit your position and wait for lower price. It helps you to be safe in total fiat or stable coin value you have.If you want to bet that this year will be different, hold your Bitcoin.No approach is perfect, exit or hold, choose one and accept risk.


The price of Bitcoin today was greatly affected by the war between Russia and Ukraine, so you never can tell the outcome of Bitcoin for the month of September till then, because looking at the chart it clearly shows September has never been favourable for Bitcoin because of one reason or another, but for me, I strongly believe this year there is going to be a difference, because Bitcoin has been bearish for quite some time now, and the month of September may look promising, if only there is no global economic crisis.


Let me start by saying the more we look at times, the lesser we see, this is why I don't search too deeply on the things that pertain to Bitcoin and other markets because some economic reviews and statistics could confuse us, or just be a distraction. Without wasting time, four factors are to be watched for this September which is as follows;1. Inflation figures2. Market sentiment3  Ethereum Merge4. Other unexpected newsI mentioned Ethereum merge because its news helped cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin to rise in July. Who knows what its realization in September could be?


You are making the common mistake of only looking at part of the market and not the whole picture. Each time there is a drop, there has to be something going on. Either a huge rise that happened before the drop or an ongoing downtrend of a bear market.Take 2021 for example. In July and August price goes up 79% ($29k to $52k) and then in September there is a drop.Same with 2020.This is also why in both 2015 and 2016 price is actually going up because the drop already happened and that is the time for recovery.I'd say 2022 looks more like 2015/2016 considering that the market already crashed and it is time for recovery.The only reason for any possible future drops could be the fact that people have been brainwashed in recent years to think that whenever US economy falls apart, they should panic sell their bitcoins instead of buying it as the only existing hedge against inflation.And US economy is falling apart these days...

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